could get 2 or even 3 major oscars this year

Could get 3 or even 4 major oscars this year

Last year we did pretty well on predictions, but last year was easier. This year has been tough to make out. The biggest theme of this year’s Oscars is #OscarsSoWhite. I completely agree, the nominations will be the most memorable thing about the awards this year, sadly. Selma was too well directed and too well acted to be snubbed in both of those categories. It’s hard to understand the thought process here. David Oyelowo’s performance wasn’t as good as Benedict Cumberbatch? Even Cumberbatch is confused by this?The academy will be taking a “divide the spoils” approach this year. Rewarding three people – Linklater, Iñárritu, and Anderson. I believe Grand Budapest is going to have the most statues at the end of the night, because of the quality of it’s art and the writing. Though it likely won’t win any majors. Boyhood and Birdman will duke it out for many of the top honors – but I give the slight edge to Birdman.

Best Actor
This is a two man race. Eddie Redmayne just won the BAFTA on top of his Golden Globe. And I am now even more convinced that Michael Keaton is going to take home the Oscar this year. The academy didn’t even nominate David Oyelowo for Selma. It seems the “accurate portrayal” of a historical figure card has been worn out. Redmayne brought two forms of Daniel Day Lewis like performance to The Theory of Everything – Lewis’ accuracy of Lincoln and transformation of My Left Foot – all in one movie – it was phenomenal. The film he starred in was not as extraordinary as his performance. Keaton delivered the kind of nuanced, self-aware / self-deprecating performance that the academy will value, and in a truly excellent movie. Ironically, it may be the most “accurate” portrayal of all. My vote is for Oyelowo who blew me away as MLK – but my prediction is Keaton, which should make for a pretty crazy speech.

Best Supporting Actor
Wanting something to happen isn’t going to make it happen – but I really do want this to go to John Kimball (J.K.) Simmons. I have always enjoyed what he brings to the screen, and his performance in Whiplash was a breakthrough performance. He is up against a juggernaut field with Edward Norton and Robert Duvall – both of whom turned in great performances in their respective movies. But Simmons delivered an amazing performance in an amazing movie – I WANT THIS…GIVE IT TO ME ACADEMY! WE ARE FARMERS…  How can you not root for this guy?

Best Supporting Actress
Meryl getting a supporting actress credit for Into the Woods is spurious for me? It’s almost as if the academy is maneuvering to get Julianne Moore a Best Actress statue. Patricia Arquette is the GG winner, I think that she gets it here – but I can’t tell you why? I didn’t see Into the Woods, so I can’t speak for Meryl – but it’s a rare occasion that she is in a category she doesn’t win.

Best Actress
Julianne Moore – her time has come…

Best Director
Everyone thinks it will be Linklater – but I don’t think so. Yes, what he did was novel, and deserves the credit it is getting. Michel Hazanavicius winning for the Artist is the analogy for me. Everyone loved the Silent B/W film as a novelty. It is hard to count out Wes Anderson for this. He is the kind of guy that the academy loves. And Grand Budapest definitely showcased his talents, I think this may be the best movie he has made – which is saying something. However I think Alejandro González Iñárritu is the winner in this category. Birdman was the best directed film of the three I mention above. I think Wes Anderson is going to have a statue before this year’s oscars are done…but not for this category.

Best Picture
This year it’s a coin toss for this category. Selma was a great film and it really resonated, it wasn’t the best picture I have seen this year, but maybe the academy will recognize the importance of this movie at this time, that could salvage their complete failure in the nomination process. If that didn’t happen, my pick in this category would be Whiplash. I think that was the best movie made this year – but I believe a win for Whiplash is unlikely. You often see Best Director and Best Picture together, but not always. I think the academy will be choosing between Birdman and Boyhood. Boyhood was probably too good a movie to send home empty handed – so I think this is how it plays out, Boyhood.

Other random predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay – this has to be Whiplash – this is probably the closest thing to a lock in this years Oscars.
Best Original Screenplay – I believe Anderson will get his first Oscar here. I do think Birdman and Boyhood are going to make it tough. Both of those movies were well crafted – however my instinct is that the academy wants to reward Anderson.
Cinematography – Grand Budapest – I would be SHOCKED if another movie could top this. The filming of Grand Budapest is probably the best I have seen in a few years- I loved the way No Country for Old Men was shot – this movie is up there for me in that class. I believe Grand Budapest deserves to be seen in the theater. Robert Yeoman is Andreson’s “guy”- they have done several movies together.
Costume – Grand Budapest – basically the art department will be living on stage this night…
Editing – Boyhood – she was getting dailies for like 15 years right?
Makeup – Grand Budapest
Visual Effects – dunno, this is probably the most competitive category at this years Oscars. I would have to say I was most impressed by the VFX in Interstellar.

Will be the winning art department

Will be the winning art department

3 Responses to 2015 Oscar Predictions

  1. Lutz Henckels says:

    I have been waiting to reply to this one in an effort to see as many Oscar nominated films as possible before the awards. But alas, I’m still missing a few of the critical films. That being said, here are my predictions for the primary categories only:

    Film: Boyhood
    Actor: Keaton
    Actress: Moore
    Supporting Actress: Arquette
    Supporting Actor: JK SImmons
    Director: Linklater

    The one I have the greatest doubt on is Director. This is a real toss-up between Linklater and Inarritu. Both films are amazing. The directing on both films is amazing.

    Beyond the categories, I loved, loved, loved Whiplash. Insane energy and quite the ending. Miles Teller is a breakout star and Fantastic Four may be the mainstream popcorn blockbuster that will have him everywhere (for better or worse).

    What will be interesting after tonight is what difference the awards will make on the careers of the winners. Will we see Michael Keaton get a career resurgence like a Travolta after Pulp Fiction? Will JK Simmons ever be in a leading role? Will we see True Romance 2 for Arquette??? I’m reaching on these ones, but will be fun to watch!

    • John says:

      Wow. True Romance 2! Walken will EVENTUALLY find Slater and Arquette, right? I thought Teller was incredible in whiplash as well. We are pretty aligned. I can’t really predict picture and Director – but I feel confident those two will be split by Birdman and Boyhood in some way. To me Birdman was a better display of directorial artistry – which is why I lean there for Innaritu. I think Simmons is a “character” actor as they say, he’s just a damn fine one that is getting overdue recognition. I am eager to see a monster flub like last years “Adele Dazeem” – would be fantastic if Travolta hosted again…

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